The South Asian Monsoon Just Became a Political Variable Again

Early indicators of the South Asian monsoon season are forcing capitals across the region to reopen contingency planning that had been pushed to the back of the policy queue. The indicators, in their current shape, are sufficiently mixed that practitioners following the regional weather and agricultural picture said the contingency work is now unavoidable, even though the season itself will not be fully readable for several more weeks.

Why the contingency work is reopening now

The contingency work covers categories of policy that take time to operationalize, from agricultural input subsidies to grain stock management to the kinds of fiscal accommodations that affected populations may need depending on how the season actually unfolds. The lead times on each of those categories are long enough that the capitals cannot wait for the season to clarify before making the relevant decisions. The early indicators are sufficient justification to reopen the planning even if the eventual season turns out to be more benign than the worst-case planning would assume.

The agricultural ministries in several capitals have, in the past several weeks, restored the kind of inter-ministerial coordination forums that operate routinely during difficult monsoon seasons and that are scaled back in calmer periods. The restoration of the forums is itself a signal of how seriously the early indicators are being taken.

What the broader political stakes look like

The political stakes attached to the monsoon are higher this year than they have been in several seasons. Several of the capitals are operating with thinner fiscal room than usual and with political calendars that make any decision with downstream household economics implications more sensitive. The contingency planning is therefore taking on a more deliberate political dimension than the strictly technical version of the work would require.

The season itself will be the final arbiter. The planning that is happening now is the work that determines whether the response, when the season clarifies, is competent or improvised. Practitioners said the early signs of the planning are competent. The next several weeks will determine whether the competence is enough.

Related reading: South Asia's Monsoons Are Quietly Rewriting What Farmers Are Allowed to Plant and How the EU's Quietest Recent Policy Move Is Rippling Beyond Europe.